BJP set to lose these many Lok Sabha seats in Chhattisgarh in 2019

The 'Raman Raj' has finally ended in Chhattisgarh after 15 long years. The Congress, which was out of power in the state since 2003, has made a stunning comeback in these elections and completely decimated the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under the leadership of Raman Singh. The Congress has won 68 seats in the 90-member strong Chhattisgarh Assembly, while the BJP was reduced to 15 seats only. The Ajit Jogi-BSP alliance has won the remaining 7 seats in the Assembly. The Congress has received the support of 61,44,192 voters in these elections which is about 43 per cent of the total votes polled, on the other hand, the BJP has got the backing of 47,07,141 voters in the elections i.e. 33 per cent of the total votes polled in the state. The Ajit Jogi-led Janata Congress Chhattisgarh has received 10,86,581 votes in the state which is close to 7.6 per cent of the total votes. Jogi's alliance partner, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has also impressed the experts with its performance in the state. It has garnered 5,52,313 votes with 3.9 per cent vote share. In the 2013 Assembly elections, the BJP had received 53,65,272 votes with a share of 41.04 per cent and the Congress had received 52,67,698 votes with a share of 40.29 per cent of votes.

A careful analysis of the results of recently held Assembly Elections in Chhattisgarh by the News Nation team gives a serious reason to the BJP and party chief Amit Shah to introspect. According to our analysis, the BJP is likely to lose 10 Lok Sabha seats in Chhattisgarh if these results are replicated in the Lok Sabha Elections 2019. It will be a complete role reversal of the parties in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls in 2019 based on these results. The Congress is likely to get 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state, while the BJP will get a single seat in the Lok Sabha elections 2019. The BJP had won 10 seats out of 11 in the three consecutive Lok Sabha elections i.e. in 2004 (lost only Mahasamund), 2009 (lost only Korba) and 2014 (lost only Durg). According to our study, the BJP is going to win only Bilaspur Lok Sabha seat in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls in 2019. The BJP is able to win 4 Assembly seats in Bilaspur this time and the Congress has won 2. The BJP has received 77,000 votes more than the Congress party in Bilaspur.

The Congress, however, is likely to win Sarguja, Raigarh, Janjgir-Champa, Korba, Durg, Raipur, Mahasamund, Bastar, Kanker and Rajnandgaon constituencies in the Lok Sabha elections 2019. Rajnandgaon has been a BJP bastion and it has won it six times. Dr Raman Singh had won the seat in 1999 and now the seat has been represented by his son Abhishek Singh in the Lok Sabha. The Congress is ahead of the BJP by more than 1,50,000 votes this time. The BJP is all set to lose the Raipur seat also in 2019 based on these results. BJP's Ramesh Bais has been winning this seat consecutively six times since 1996. He first became the member from this seat in 1989. Bais had defeated Congress stalwarts Shyama Charan Shukla, Bhupesh Baghel and Satya Narayan Sharma in 2004, 2009 and 2014 respectively.

The Congress has also got more votes than the BJP in Bastar, Kanker and Mahasamund. It is ahead of the BJP by over 1,00,000 votes in Bastar, over 2,35,000 votes in Kanker and over 1,60,000 votes in Mahasamund. In Korba and Janjgir-Champa, the Congress is ahead of the BJP by over 55,000 and 94,000 votes respectively. The Congress has a huge lead of over 2,25,000 in Sarguja. The Congress also received more votes than the BJP in Raigarh (over 1,95,000 votes) and Durg (over 1,80,000 votes). It needs to be noted that the BJP was ahead in 72 Assembly seats during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.