Delhi Assembly Elections: AAP Again? Here's How Accurate Exit Polls Have Been In Past

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is set to make a hat-trick as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is predicted to register a big victory in the Assembly Elections by most exit polls. The voting for Delhi assembly elections was held on Saturday and the counting of votes will take place on February 11. Exit polls for the Delhi Assembly election on Saturday predicted a comfortable victory for the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) despite a likely rise in tally for the BJP in the 70-member House.

Delhi BJP chief Manoj Tiwari put up a brave face claiming his party will win "48 seats" and form a government in the city. "All these exit polls will fail. Please save this tweet from me. The BJP will form government in the city with 48 seats. Please do not look for excuses and blame the EVMs (Electronic Voting Machines)," his tweet read.

The India Today-Axis poll forecast 59-68 seats for the AAP and 2-11 for the BJP, while the ABP-CVoter put the Delhi's ruling party's tally at anywhere between 49 and 63 and that of its main rival between five to 19.

Almost all exit polls predicted little change in the fortunes of the Congress, which had ruled the city between 1998 and 2013 but drew a blank in the 2015 polls.

The Times Now-Ipsos exit poll predicted that Kejriwal will retain power with the AAP winning 47 seats against 23 for the BJP.

The Republic-Jan ki Baat survey gave the AAP 48-61 seats and the BJP 9-21 seats. The TV9 Bharatvarsh-Cicero predicted 52-64 seats for the AAP and 6-16 for the BJP. An exit poll put out by Neta-NewsX said the AAP may win 53-57 seats and the BJP 11-17.

But how much are the exit polls reliable? In 2013 exit polls, predicted Congress to win between 15-24 but it won only 8 seats.

In 2015, none of the seven exit polls got it right about AAP’s landslide victory. 53 was highest that was predicted for AAP. The AAP scored an overwhelming victory in the 2015 polls, winning 67 seats and reducing the BJP to three. Congress had drawn a blank. The India-News-Axis poll result was the closest which had predicted 53 seats for AAP.