Estimated Nominal Growth Of GDP For 2020-21 At 10%: Sitharaman In Budget

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s announcement during the Union Budget 2020 on GDP expectations may cheer the mood of investors. “We have estimated nominal growth of GDP for the year 2020-21 on the trends available at 10 per cent,” Sitharaman said during her Union Budget speech. “We estimate a fiscal deficit of 3.8 per cent in RE 2019-20 and 3.5 per cent for BE 2020-21,” Sitharaman said. The Finance Minister stressed on a clean, reliable and robust financial sector is required for achieving the ambitious target of $5 trillion economy. Presenting the Budget for 2020-21, Sitharaman said robust mechanism is in place to monitor health of all commercial banks and asserted that depositors' money is absolutely safe.

She noted that Rs 3.50 lakh crore capital has been infused in public sector banks in past years, while acknowledging that there is a need for greater private capital in banks. Sitharaman further said the government plans amendment to facilitate separation of government pension trust from Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA). She also said the government's balance holding in IDBI bank will be sold to private retail investors. 

On Friday, Modi government revised the economic growth rate for 2018-19 to 6.1 per cent from 6.8 per cent estimated earlier, mainly due to deceleration in mining, manufacturing and farm sectors.

"Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2018-19 and 2017-18 stand at Rs 139.81 lakh crore and Rs 131.75 lakh crore, respectively, showing growth of 6.1 per cent during 2018-19 and 7.0 per cent during 2017-18," the National Statistical Office said in revised national account data released on Friday.

Under the first revision released in January 2019, real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for 2017-18 was pegged at Rs 131.80 lakh crore, showing a growth of 7.2 per cent.

"The growth in real GVA (gross value added) during 2018-19 has been lower than that in 2017-18 mainly due to relatively lower growth in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing', Mining and Quarrying', Manufacturing', Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services, Financial Services, Public Administration and Defense and Other Services," it added.

During 2018-19, at constant prices, the growth rates of primary (comprising agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining & quarrying), secondary (comprising manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, and construction) and tertiary (services) sectors have been estimated at 1.0 per cent, 6.0 per cent and 7.7 per cent, as against 5.8 per cent, 6.5 per cent and 6.9 per cent, respectively, in the previous year.

The  Nominal Net National Income (NNI) at current prices for 2018-19 stands at Rs 167.89 lakh crore as against Rs 151.50 lakh crore in 2017-18, showing growth of 10.8 per cent during 2018-19 as against 11.2 per cent in the previous year.

The per capita income, that is per capita net national income at current prices, is estimated as Rs 1,15,293 and Rs 1,26,521 respectively for the years 2017-18 and 2018-19.

Per capita Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices for the years 2017-18 and 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 76,794 and Rs 84,808 respectively.