GDP growth for 2014-15 marginally revised down to 7.2%

The Government has marginally revised downward the economic growth for 2014-15 to 7.2 per cent from the earlier estimate of 7.3 per cent after factoring in latest data on agriculture and industrial production.

“The real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2014-15 and 2013-14 stands at Rs 105.52 lakh crore and Rs 98.39 lakh crore, respectively, showing growth of 7.2 per cent during 2014-15, and 6.6 per cent during 2013-14,” said Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) revised estimates of national accounts released today.

GDP growth rate for 2013-14 has also revised downwards to 6.6 per cent from earlier estimate of 6.9 per cent.

According to the statement, estimates of GDP and other aggregates for the years 2011-12 to 2013-14 have also undergone revision due to use of latest available data on agricultural production and industrial production.

Last year, the CSO had estimated the GDP growth rate for 2014-15 and 2013-14 at 7.3 per cent and 6.9 per cent, respectively.

The office said in terms of real GVA (Gross Value Added) at constant (2011-12) basic prices, there has been a growth of 7.1 per cent in 2014-15 as against growth of 6.3 per cent in 2013-14.

The GVA for 2014-15 was earlier estimated at 7.2 per cent.  GVA as a concept was introduced by the CSO last year to measure value addition in the economy.

The downward revision in GVA for 2014-15 is on account of subdued performance of secondary sector comprising manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, and construction.

The growth rate in secondary sector estimated at 5.4 per cent down from earlier projection of 6.3 per cent. However the growth rate for the primary (farm and allied activities) and tertiary (services) sectors have been revised upwards to 1.3 per cent and 10.3 per cent, from earlier estimates of 0.3 and 10.2 per cent respectively.

Similarly the per capita Private Final Consumption Expenditure at current prices, for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15 is estimated at Rs 52,022 and Rs 56,772, respectively.

The gross saving during 2014-15 is estimated as Rs 41.17 lakh crore as against Rs 37.25 lakh crore during 2013-14. The rate of gross saving to Gross National Disposable Income for the year 2014-15 is estimated as 32.3 per cent, the same as in 2013-14.

The highest contributor to the gross saving is the household sector, with a share of 57.8 per cent in the year 2014-15.

However, the share has declined from 63.4 per cent in 2013-14 to 57.8 in 2014-15. This decline can be attributed to the decline in household savings in physical assets, which has declined from Rs 14.61 lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs 13.79 lakh crore in 2014-15, it said.

On the other hand, the share of Non-Financial Corporations has increased from 32.7 per cent in 2013-14 to 37.2 per cent in 2014-15. The share of Financial Corporations increased marginally from 7.9 per cent in 2013-14 to 8.2 per cent in 2014-15, while the dis-saving of General Government has decreased from 4 per cent in 2013-14 to 3.2 per cent in 2014-15, it said.

In terms of Gross Capital Formation (GCF) an indicator of investment (at current prices), the highest contributor is Non-Financial Corporations, with the share rising steadily from 45.7 per cent in 2011-12 to 52.0 per cent in 2014-15.

Share of household sector in GCF is also significant, but has declined from 43.4 per cent in 2011-12 to 33.9 per cent in 2014-15. The share of General Government in GCF has increased from 9.6 per cent in 2011-12 to 12.9 per cent in 2014-15.

Within the GCF at current prices, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) amounted to Rs 38.44 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against Rs 35.64 lakh crore in 2013-14.

The rate of GFCF to GDP at current prices was 30.8 per cent in 2014-15 as compared to 31.6 per cent in 2013-14. The change in stocks of inventories, at current prices, increased from Rs 1.80 lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs 2.21 lakh crore in 2014-15, while the valuables increased from Rs 1.63 lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs 1.93 lakh crore in 2014-15.

The rate of Gross Capital Formation to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices has decreased marginally from 36.2 per cent in 2013-14 to 35.9 per cent in 2014-15.