Indian economy is expected to record a five-year high growth rate of 7.6 per cent in 2015-16 on improved performance in manufacturing and farm sectors.
According the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or economic growth is estimated at 7.3 per cent in October-December quarter of this fiscal.
CSO has also revised upwards the GDP growth estimates for April-June and July-September quarters to 7.6 per cent and 7.7 per cent from earlier calculation of 7 per cent and 7.4 per cent, respectively.
At 7.6 per cent, India would be growing at the fastest pace in the last five years. The previous high was recorded at 8.9 per cent in 2010-11.
The real Gross Value Addition, a new concept introduced by CSO to measure economic growth, is projected at 7.3 per cent in this fiscal against 7.1 per cent in 2014-15.
The manufacturing sector is estimated to grow at 9.5 per cent in 2015-16, up from 5.5 per cent a year ago.
Similarly, in case of agriculture sector, the growth has been projected at 1.1 per cent as against decline of 0.2 per cent a year ago.
The growth of mining and quarrying sector, electricity and power supply and other services is likely to witness deceleration during the current financial year.
Commenting on the GDP data, Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das said, “The direction of the numbers is very positive. The policy and reform measure the government has undertaken in last one and a half years are beginning to show results.”
The GVA for the farm sector contracted one per cent in October-December quarter compared to decline of 2.4 per cent in the same period a year ago.
However, the GVA for manufacturing sector grew at 12.6 per cent in the third quarter as against a growth of 1.7 per cent in the same three month period a year ago.
Similarly, the GVA for mining and quarrying sector grew at 6.5 per cent in the quarter under review compared to 9.1 per cent growth in same period a year ago.
The GVA growth for electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services too slowed down to 6 per cent from 8.8 per cent in same quarter a year ago.
The GVA for construction grew at 4 per cent in the quarter compared to 4.9 per cent in same period in 2014-15.
However, the GVA for trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting grew at 10.1 per cent in third quarter compared to 6.2 per cent in same period a year ago.
Financial, real estate and professional services grew at 9.9 per cent in third quarter this fiscal compared to 12.1 per cent a year ago.
Public administration, defence and other services grew at 7.5 per cent in the three month period compared to 25.3 per cent a year ago.
CSO estimated that the per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2015-16 is likely to attain a level of Rs 77,431 as compared to Rs 72,889 for the year 2014-15.
The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 6.2 per cent during 2015-16 as against 5.8 per cent in the previous year.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), a barometer of investment, is estimated at Rs 39.82 lakh crore at current prices in 2015-16 as against Rs 38.44 lakh crore in 2014-15.
At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs 35.88 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against Rs 34.08 lakh crore in 2014-15.
In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2015-16 are estimated at 29.4 per cent and 31.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.8 per cent and 32.3 per cent, respectively in 2014-15.
The GFCF is expected to register growth rate of 3.6 per cent at current prices and 5.3 per cent at constant prices.
The rate of expenditure on valuables at current prices is same as 1.5 per cent in 2015-16 and 2014-15.