China and Japan’s economies are expected to slow sharply over the next two years but Asian growth will remain strong as domestic demand takes up the slack from weak global trade, the IMF said today.
Government stimulus measures, lower commodity prices and low unemployment will help drive regional expansion, the International Monetary Fund said, and called on leaders to push on with reforms.
However, in its Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific, the Fund also warned of several external challenges, from weakness in advanced economies, weak global trade and increasingly volatile global financial markets.
Since its previous outlook on the region in October, global markets have seen wild volatility, with worries over China’s economy and plunging oil prices hammering shares in January and February, wiping trillions off valuations. While there has been a slight recovery since March, investors remain on edge.
“Asia remains the most dynamic part of the global economy but is facing severe headwinds from a still weak global recovery, slowing global trade, and the short-term impact of China’s growth transition,” the Fund said.
“To strengthen its resilience to global risks and remain a source of dynamism, policymakers in the region should push ahead with structural reforms to raise productivity and create fiscal space while supporting demand as needed.”
The Fund predicted growth in Asia to come in at 5.3 per cent this year and next, down from its previous forecast of 5.4 per cent.
China’s economy, the world’s second biggest and a crucial driver of global growth, is tipped to expand 6.5 per cent this year - the lower end of Beijing’s target - and 6.2 per cent in 2017.
The figures are well down from the 6.9 per cent seen in 2015, which was the slowest rate in a quarter of a century, but slightly better than the IMF’s October outlook.
“While Asia remains the global growth engine, the external environment is becoming much more difficult,” said Rhee Chang-Yong, director of IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, speaking to reporters today.
The Fund noted China’s leadership is trying to transform the country’s growth driver away from a reliance on government investment and exports to one dominated by domestic consumption.
It also warned of the spillover effects of China’s slowing growth on other economies that rely on the country to drive their own expansion, including weaker trade and commodity prices.