Government forecasts 2018-19 GDP growth at 7.2% against 6.7% in 2017-18

The Centre has estimated the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth during 2018-19 at 7.2 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 6.7 per cent in 2017-18, according to the Central Statistics Office. The economic growth projection was part of the "First Advance Estimates Of National Income 2018-19" report by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Many economists had lowered India's growth forecast to around 7 per cent for the 2018-19 fiscal year, compared with the RBI's earlier estimate of 7.4 percent, citing weakening consumption and slowdown in credit offtake.

Releasing the first advance estimates of National Income for 2018-19, the CSO said, "The growth in GDP during 2018-19 is estimated at 7.2 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 6.7 per cent in 2017-18."

The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 7.1 per cent in 2016-17 and 8.2 per cent in 2015-16.

"Real GVA (Gross Value Added) is anticipated to grow at 7 per cent in the current fiscal as against 6.5 per cent in 2017-18," it said. According to the CSO data, the expansion in activities in 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' is likely to increase to 3.8 per cent in the current fiscal from 3.4 per cent in the preceding year.

The growth of the manufacturing sector is expected to accelerate to 8.3 per cent this fiscal, up from 5.7 per cent in 2017-18.

However, the mining and quarrying sector growth rate is estimated to decline from 2.9 per cent in 2017-18 to 0.8 per cent in current fiscal. Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting will too witness deceleration to 6.9 per cent from 8 per cent in the previous fiscal.

The growth rate of public administration, defence and other services will also dip to 8.9 per cent from 10 per cent last fiscal. Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services growth is estimated at 9.4 per cent in 2018-19, up from 7.2 per cent in the last fiscal. Similarly, the construction sector is expected to grow at 8.9 per cent from 5.7 per cent previous fiscal. Financial, real estate and professional services' growth will be a tad higher at 6.8 per cent this fiscal against 6.6 per cent in 2017-18.

According to the CSO estimates, the per capita net national income during 2018-19 will be Rs 1,25,397, showing a rise of 11.1 per cent as compared to Rs 1,12,835 during 2017-18 with the growth rate of 8.6 per cent.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), a barometer of investment, at current prices is estimated at Rs 55.58 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs 47.79 lakh crore in 2017-18.

At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs 45.86 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs 40.88 lakh crore in 2017-18.

In terms of GDP, the rates of the GFCF at Current and Constant (2011-12) prices during 2018-19 are estimated at 29.5 per cent and 32.9 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 28.5 per cent and 31.4 per cent, respectively in 2017-18.

The discrepancies in the GDP estimates for current fiscal has been pegged at Rs 1,49,331 crore as against Rs 2,23,504 crore in 2017-18.

The Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at Rs 21.70 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs 19.08 lakh crore in 2017-18. At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs 15.28 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs 14.0 lakh crore in 2017- 18.

In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2018-19 are estimated at 11.5 per cent and 11.0 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.4 per cent and 10.8 per cent, respectively in 2017-18. 

India’s growth in the July-September quarter slipped to 7.1 per cent from 8.2 per cent in the April-June quarter as consumption demand moderated and farm sector displayed signs of weakness. The growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in July- September is the lowest in three quarters but better than 6.3 per cent in the same period of the previous year, helping the country retain the tag of the world’s fastest-growing major economy, ahead of China.

(With PTI inputs)