The surge from post poll alliances would push the NDA well above the majority mark of 272.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA may garner 42 per cent of the vote nationally in the Lok Sabha elections 2019, while the Congress-led UPA alliance would secure 30.4 per cent of the votes, according to The State of the Nation March 2019 Wave 2 opinion poll conducted by CVoter for news agency IANS.
The opinion poll released on March 24 is based on a sample survey of 10,280 this week, and a cumulative base of 70,000 respondents since January 1 covering 543 Lok Sabha constituencies.
In Uttar Pradesh, where the Congress is not part of the grand alliance, the NDA is likely to get 35.4 per cent of the vote. In Rajasthan, where the Vasudhara Raje government lost to the Congress in the assembly elections last year, the NDA is expected to get 50.7 per cent of the vote, while in the BJP stronghold of Gujarat, the CVoter opinion poll predicts that the NDA will get 58.2 per cent of the vote share. In Bihar, the NDA's vote share is expected to be 52.6 per cent
However, in some states, including Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the NDA is lagging behind the UPA. The two sides are neck and neck in Karnataka.
Seat share projections for the NDA, based on pre-poll alliances, shows it will fall short of a House majority with 261 seats -- an earlier CVoter opinion poll on March 10 had put this number at 264. The second survey shows that the BJP will get 241 seats on its own.
However, the surge from post poll alliances would push it well above the majority mark of 272.
In a recent opinion poll carried out by News Nation showed the BJP-led NDA government is likely to retain power at the Centre, riding the "Modi wave", and is expected to win 270 of the 543 seats in the highly anticipated Lok Sabha elections.
On the other hand, the Congress, despite being buoyant after the victories in Assembly polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, will be able to win only 134 seats (with its partners) while others are expected to win 139 seats.
However, according to the opinion poll, the NDA will get a combined vote share of 34 per cent – 4.5 per cent less than what it got in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The UPA is expected to get a vote share of 28 per cent while Others may get 29 per cent of the votes.
According to the opinion poll, 47 per cent of the respondents said they want Modi to continue as the prime minister while 30 per cent chose Congress chief Rahul Gandhi over the former. Also, 55 per cent of the participants said there is no match to PM Modi's stature, while 32 per cent disagreed on this.
Narendra Modi had led the NDA to a sweeping victory in 2014 as it won 336 seats, reducing the incumbent Congress to its lowest total of 44 seats. The BJP had won 282 seats handing a crushing defeat to the 10-year-rule of the United Progressive Alliance led by Congress.