Karnataka Opinion Poll: Congress-Kumaraswamy pact fails to dent BJP's prospects in state

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will once again face the Congress-JDS alliance in the state of Karnataka in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections after failing to form the government in the state due to the Congress and Janata Dal-Secular’s unprecedented alliance after the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections.

According to the opinion poll conducted the News Nation, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to get more seats than the JDS-Congress alliance. The poll suggests that the BJP will win 16 seats whereas the Congress-JDS alliance will garner the remaining 12 seats. Interestingly, the opinion poll also indicates that the saffron party will get the lesser vote share, 42 per cent, as compared to the Congress-JDS alliance (44 per cent).

The 28 parliamentary constituencies in Karnataka will go for polling in two phases on April 18 and 23 and the counting of votes and announcement of results for both phases will be done on May 23. Udupi Chikmagalur, Hassan, Dakshina Kannada, Chitradurga, Tumkur, Mandya, Mysore, Chamarajanagar, Bangalore Rural, Bangalore North, Bangalore Central, Bangalore South, Chikballapur and Kolarn will go to polls in the first phase.

While other 14 constituencies would vote on April 23 - Chikkodi, Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gulbarga, Raichur, Bidar, Koppal, Bellary, Haveri, Dharwad, Uttara Kannada, Davanagere and Shimoga.

To recall, Karnataka is the only southern state where the BJP has held power in the past. The saffron party had a strong lead in North and South Bangalore seats. In 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) performed extremely well after the return of BS Yeddyurappa in the party fold. The 2014 election in Karnataka was held in a single phase on April 17. The state sends 28 members to the Lok Sabha. The BJP won 17 of these seats whereas the Congress was restricted to just 9 seats in the state. The Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) was successful in the remaining 2 seats (Mandya and Hassan). In 2009, the BJP was successful on 19 seats and the Congress and the JDS won 6 and 3 seats respectively.

The BJP received 1,33,50,285 votes with a vote share of 43.37 per cent. The Congress garnered 1,26,66,530 votes with a vote share of 41.15 per cent whereas the JDS, known as the third force in the state, got 34,06,465 votes with a vote share of 11.07 per cent. According to our analysis, the BJP was ahead in 132 Assembly segments during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress was leading on 77 and the JDS on 15.