2019 Lok Sabha Election Analysis: What happened in Haryana in 2014 polls? What will happen this year?

Lok Sabha Elections 2019: The Election Commission of India (ECI) has finally sounded the poll bugle and declared the schedule for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 on March 10. The Lok Sabha Elections 2019 will be held in seven phases, starting from April 11. The results will be declared on May 23. 91 constituencies will go for polls in the first phase on April 11, followed by 97 constituencies in the second phase on April 18. The third phase will be held on April 23 and fourth on April 29, fifth on May 6, sixth on May 12 and seventh phase on May 19. 115 constituencies will go for polls in the third phase, 71 in the fourth phase, 51 in the fifth phase, 59 in the sixth phase and 59 in the seventh phase. We are also gearing up for the elections and are coming up with a series: 2019 Lok Sabha Election Analysis: What happened in 2014 Lok Sabha Polls? What will happen this year? Now, let's look at the political scenario in the state of Haryana. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been ruling the state since 2014. Manohar Lal Khattar became the first BJP chief minister of the state after the Assembly elections in 2014. The BJP contested the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in an alliance with Kuldeep Bishnoi's Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) and won the maximum seats in the state. However, the party broke its alliance with the HJC and contested the Haryana Assembly elections alone. The Congress and the Om Prakash Chautala-led Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) are the other two important parties of the state. Let's discuss this in detail. Also Read: Lok Sabha Elections 2019: When will you vote? Know poll dates of your seat here

Lok Sabha Elections 2019: When will Haryana vote?

Haryana will go for polls in the sixth phase on May 12. Polling in all 10 Lok Sabha seats of Ambala, Karnal, Faridabad, Gurgaon, Sirsa, Sonipat, Hisar, Bhiwani-Mahendragarh, Kurukshetra and Rohtak will be held in a single phase.     

What happened in Haryana in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections?

In 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP decimated the Congress and the INLD and won 7 seats in Haryana. The state has 10 parliamentary seats. The Congress was able to win only a single seat while the INLD grabbed the remaining two seats. The 2014 Lok Sabha polls in Haryana were held on April 10. The BJP received 39,93,527 votes with a vote share of 34.84 per cent, while the Congress was able to garner 26,34,905 votes in the state with a vote share of 22.99 per cent. The INLD got 27,99,899 votes with a vote share of 24.43 per cent. The HJC, BJP's ally, contested on 2 seats as per the seat-sharing agreement and got 7,03,698 votes (6.14 per cent). However, the party drew a blank in the elections and even its chief Kuldeep Bishnoi lost his seat. According to our analysis, the BJP was ahead in 52 Assembly segments during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress was leading on 15 and the INLD on 16. In 2009 Lok Sabha Elections, the Congress won 9 seats in the state.  

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) also received 4.60 per cent of votes. The BJP won Ambala, Karnal, Sonipat, Bhiwani-Mahendragarh, Kurukshetra, Gurgaon and Faridabad constituencies. The Congress retained its stronghold in Rohtak, while the INLD won Sirsa and Hissar. Some of the prominent winners in 2014 were Rao Inderjit Singh (BJP-Gurgaon), Krishan Pal Gurjar (BJP-Faridabad), Ashwini Kumar Chopra (BJP-Karnal), Deepender Singh Hooda (Congress-Rohtak) and Dushyant Chautala (INLD-Hissar).

Kuldeep Bishnoi (HJC), Naveen Jindal (Congress), Ashok Tanwar (Congress), Avtar Singh Bhadana (Congress), Shruti Choudhry (Congress), Om Prakash Dhankar (BJP), RK Anand (INLD), Zakir Hussain (INLD), Yogendra Yadav (AAP), Naveen Jaihind (AAP) and Arvind Kumar Sharma (Congress) lost the elections.

What was the result of Haryana Assembly Elections in 2014?

Riding on 'Modi wave', the BJP for the first time formed its government in Haryana and Manohar Lal Khattar took over as the chief minister. The Congress lost the elections after the two consecutive terms and the INLD emerged as the main opposition party in the 2014 Haryana Assembly Elections. The saffron party received 41,25,285 votes with a vote share of 33.20 per cent. The party won 47 seats in the 90-member strong Assembly and almost repeated its Lok Sabha poll performance. The Congress got 25,57,940 votes with a vote share of 20.58 per cent and won 15 seats. In 2009 Assembly polls, the Congress became the single largest party with 40 seats in the state and formed the government again with the help of 7 Independents. The INLD won 31 seats whereas the BJP was a marginal player with only 4 seats. The HJC contested the elections for the first time and won 6 seats.  

The INLD performed better than the Congress and garnered 29,96,203 votes with a 24.11 per cent vote share. The HJC broke the alliance with the BJP and won only 2 seats and received 4,43,444 votes (3.57 per cent).   

What is the current scenario in 2019?

Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda was the chief minister of Haryana from 2005 to 2014. (File photo: PTI)

The ruling BJP will face both the Lok Sabha elections and Assembly elections in 2019 in Haryana. The party has just convincingly won the Jind bypoll and wrested the seat from the INLD. The Om Prakash Chautala-led party is in big trouble after Dushyant Chautala and Digvijay Singh Chautala broke away from the party and formed the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) due to a massive rift in the Chautala family. However, the newly formed JJP came at the second spot and got more votes than the INLD and the Congress. The BJP won the Jind seat for the first time in its history. The bypoll was a big disappointment for the Congress which fielded prominent leader Randeep Singh Surjewala. The INLD forged an alliance with the Mayawati-led BSP in the state but the BSP later decided to end the alliance due to the division in the Chautala family. The ruling party is also facing rebellion after its Kurukshetra MP Rajkumar Saini established his own party Loktantra Suraksha Party (LSP) and contested the Jind bypoll. The party lost the elections but got more than 13,000 votes. The LSP formed an alliance with the BSP now. The AAP is trying to form an alliance with the JJP and the BSP now.

INLD chief Om Prakash Chautala recently hinted that he is not averse to the idea of having an alliance with the BJP again. (File photo: PTI)

The BJP also performed exceptionally well in the mayoral elections in five cities of Haryana and swept Panipat, Karnal, Rohtak, Yamunanagar and Hissar. Rohtak is considered to be a stronghold of Congress stalwart and former Haryana chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda. In order to win maximum seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, the BJP is likely to field former cricketer Virender Sehwag and Sufi singer Hans Raj Hans from Rohtak and Sirsa Lok Sabha seats respectively. Meanwhile, INLD chief Om Prakash Chautala recently hinted that he is not averse to the idea of having an alliance with the BJP again. 

What is News Nation Opinion Poll verdict in Haryana?

According to News Nation Opinion Poll, the BJP is likely to get 30 per cent of vote share in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. The Congress may get 29 per cent of votes, while the INLD is likely to secure 15 per cent of vote share. The newly-formed JJP may get 12 per cent of votes, predicts the poll.

The BJP may win 5 seats, the Congress can win 3 seats, and the INLD and the JJP are likely to get 1 seat each in 2019. So, the BJP is projected to lose 2 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls in Haryana. According to poll, the Congress is showing some signs of revival in the state. The division between the Chautala clan will hurt the prospects of the INLD. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a slim lead over Congress chief Rahul Gandhi in Haryana when the respondents were asked about their favourite Prime Ministerial candidate in 2019. Modi got the backing of 39 per cent people, while only 34 per cent chose Rahul Gandhi.

HIGHLIGHTS

• In 2014 Lok Sabha Polls, the BJP decimated the Congress and the INLD.
• The BJP won 47 seats in the Assembly polls and formed its first government.
• BJP is likely to get 30% of vote share in the upcoming polls: NN poll.