Journalists Exit Poll: No Modi ‘wave’ in 2019 elections, but NDA to form government

After the national exit poll, the exit poll of the VIP seats, News Nation brings you what senior political journalists have to say about the Lok Sabha elections 2019. Senior journalists TR Ramachandran, Renu Mittal, Satish Pednekar, Rajesh Badal, NK Singh, Chitrata Sanyal and Jagdish Upasane have expressed their views.

Senior journalist TR Ramachandran said while the NDA can get up to 320 seats, the UPA may get 80-100 seats and Others are likely to bag 122 seats. He, however, thinks the BJP does not seem to get the majority, which is 272. According to Ramachandran, Narendra Modi will win the Varanasi seat and return as the Prime Minister for the second term. He further said in the last five years, Modi has given importance to nationalism, which has overshowed other important issues, including farmers’. 

Ramachandran gave 60 per cent to nationalism as a key issue this election. He said it was the PM who had raised nationalism as the most important issue. He further said Modi speaks very positively about the country. However, there was a lack of employment during  his regime. Also, incidents of farmer suicides have increased in the last five years.

He said further it was Congress’s Digvijaya Singh who had coined the term “Hindu terrorism” and that’s why the BJP has fielded a strong candidate like Pragya Singh Thakur against him from Bhopal. Ramachandran said Priyanka Gandhi should have come to East UP much earlier. 

Senior journalist Renu Mittal said the NDA is expected to get 180 seats, while the UPA will get around 190 and Others 172. She said Priyanka Gandhi’s entry into the UP politics has brought new energy to Congress workers. However, she did not approve any of the names given to her for the PM candidate. According to her, senior Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge is a better option for the post of PM. Mittal further said rural and urban issues should have been raised in this election, but PM Modi did not address these issues.  

Senior journalist Satish Pednekar said the NDA is likely to get 300 seats, the UPA 100-110, Others may win 125-30 seats. He added that Modi has emerged as the identity of Indianism. He further said Manmohan Singh did not visit Pakistan even once when he was the prime minister, but Modi went to the neighouring country soon after becoming the PM.

Pednekar said Modi is a better PM than his predecessor. He said elections in India have always been fought on the face. Similarly, the elections of 2019 were fought on the face. In the 2014 elections, Congress president Rahul Gandhi got 11 crore and Modi got 17.1 million votes. According to him, Priyanka Gandhi's entry into politics did not help the Congress. “What did Priyanka Gandhi do that people vote for them?” he asked.

Senior journalist Rajesh Badal said the NDA is expected to get 265 seats, the UPA should get 175 seats, while the Others may win between 103 and 104 seats. He said the BJP alone is likely to get 190 to 200 seats. He further said in states, where the Congress got zero seats in the last election, it may get an edge this time. He said Modi is a better candidate for the post of PM. He gave Modi 40 per cent for the coveted post and 30 per cent to Rahul Gandhi.

Badal said there is an outrage among people about Modi, but people have no other options at the moment. He said the Modi ‘wave’ is no longer a winning factor for the BJP. He added that Priyanka Gandhi has brought life to the Congress. “Her impact will clearly be seen in the next assembly elections,” he said.

Badal said had Priyanka Gandhi contested from Varanasi against PM Modi, she would have been lost the polls for sure. But that would not end her political career. “Yes, Priyanka Gandhi can become a better leader than Rahul Gandhi,” he added. 

Senior journalist Jagdish Upasane said the NDA is likely to get 324 seats, the UPA 74 and Others 144 seats. According to him, the condition of farmers has improved in the last five years. Upasane added that the number of farmer suicide cases in the NDA government has come down. The Modi government has started the online system to sale agricultural products. Now, farmers are not forced to go to the market. He added that nationalism has been the main issue this election. He gave 70 per cent to nationalism as a key election issue this time.

Senior journalist NK Singh said the NDA may win 305 seats, the UPA 125 and Others 112 seats. In 2014, PM Modi has emerged as the most prominent face after the Anna Hazare’s movement. He had given 225 seats to the NDA before the exit poll, but now the figure has changed, according to him. Singh gave 20 per cent to nationalism and 40 per cent to polarisation as election issues this time. He added that farmers working in the field do not care much about nationalism. 

Another senior journalist Chitrata Sanyal said the NDA is likely to win around 250 seats, the UPA may bag 150 seats, while the Others to secure 142 seats. The BJP has emerged as a new party in West Bengal. Before Balakot, the situation of the BJP was not that good, and the NDA was predicted to win around 150 seats. But after the strike, the alliance is projected to win 100 seats more. He voted 50-50 per cent for nationalism and polarisation as key election issues this time. 

Experts say farmers and casteism have also been among the main issues this election. Polarisation in South will not work much for the BJP. The party can get some seats in Odisha. The BJP will not get much seats in Naveen Patnaik's stronghold, but there will definitely be some advantage.

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