Lok Sabha Polls: CNX opinion poll predicts 238 seats for BJP, CVoter says NDA will fall short of majority

The Election Commission of India (ECI) on Sunday announced the dates of the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. According to the dates announced by the commission, the elections will be held in seven phases. The state of the Nation opinion poll conducted by CVoter stated that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will fall marginally short of a majority in the Lok Sabha but will comfortably form the government with post-poll tie-ups.

The survey has also stated that had there been no ‘Mahagatbandhan’ in Uttar Pradesh, the Narendra Modi-led NDA would have walked home with over 300 Lok Sabha seats. The poll was conducted in the month of March when the Modi government took the decision of carrying out an aerial strike on Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) terror camp in Pakistan, leading to a new wave of nationalism across the country.

The poll has projected that the NDA will get 264 seats while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is expected to reach a tally of 141 and all other parties are expected to get 138 seats. In terms of seats, the BJP is expected to get 220 seats on its own and the allies are likely to get 44.

If NDA gets into a post-poll alliance with parties like YSR Congress, Mizo National Front (MNF), Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS), the NDA tally will go up to 301. In the UPA camp, the Congress is expected to get 86 and other partners will add up another 55.

If the UPA goes for a post-poll alliance with parties like All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Left Democratic Front (LDF), MGB (Mahagathbandhan in UP), Trinamool Congress (TMC), its tally will go up to 226. The Congress will improve its 2014 tally of 44 by getting most of the seats from Assam (7, up from 3 in 2014), Chhattisgarh (5 against only 1 in last election), Kerala (14, one more than 2014), Karnataka (9, same as last time), Jharkhand (5, a seat less than last time), Madhya Pradesh (5, against 3 last time), Maharashtra (7, a marginal improvement from 4 in 2014), Punjab (12 against 3 last time), Rajasthan (5, up from nil in 2014), Tamil Nadu (4 against nil last time) and Uttar Pradesh (4, up from 2).

The India TV-CNX Opinion poll has also predicted that the BJP may win 238 seats in the Lok Sabha elections 2019, which would begin from April 11. The opinion poll further predicted 82 seats for the Congress which is far better than its performance in 2014 general elections when the grand old could manage to win just 44 seats.

Here the state wise prediction of the India TV-CNX Opinion poll:

Uttar Pradesh: BJP 40, BSP 16, SP 18, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1, Total 80.

Uttarakhand: BJP 5. Total 5.

Rajasthan: BJP 20, Congress 5, Total 25.

West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 30, BJP 12,  Total 42.

Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 14, BJP 7, Total 21.

Madhya Pradesh: BJP 23, Congress 6, Total 29.

Chhattisgarh: BJP 6, Congress 5, Total 11.

Punjab: Congress 9, Akali Dal 3, AAP 1, BJP 0, Total 13.

Haryana: BJP 9, Congress 1, Total 10.

Bihar: BJP 15, RJD 8, JD(U) 12, Congress 2, LJP 3,  Total 40.

Jharkhand: BJP 8, JMM 3, Congress 2, JVM(P) 1. Total 14.

Gujarat: BJP 26, Congress 0.  Total 26.

Himachal Pradesh: BJP 4, Congress 0, Total 4.

Maharashtra: BJP 22, Shiv Sena 10, Congress 9, NCP 7, Total 48.

Goa: BJP 2, Congress 0, Total 2.

Tamil Nadu: DMK 16, AIADMK 12, AMMK 2, Congress 5, BJP 1, PMK 2, Other-1.Total 39.

Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 22, TDP 3, Congress 0, Total 25.

Telangana: Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, AIMIM 1, Congress 2, Total 17.

Karnataka: BJP 13, Congress 13, JD(S) 2, Total 28.

Kerala: UDF 12, LDF 7, BJP 1, Total 20.

Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 1, Congress 2, PDP 1, Total 6.

Assam: BJP 8, AIUDF 2, Congress 4, Total 14.

Other North East states: BJP 3, Congress 3, MNF 1, NPP 1, CPI(M) 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1. Total 11.

Delhi: BJP 7, Congress 0, AAP 0. Total 7.

Other Union Territories:  BJP 4, Congress 2. Total 6.

The final party wise projections:

BJP 238,

Congress 82,

Trinamool Congress 30, YSR Congress 22, SP 18, BSP 16, DMK 16, AIADMK 12, TRS 14, Left Front 6, JD(U) 12, NCP 7, RJD 8, Shiv Sena 10, BJD 14, smaller parties and Ind 38. Total: 543

Lok Sabha elections will begin on April 11 and polling would be held over seven phases through May 19, followed by counting of all votes on May 23, the Election Commission announced on Sunday. Assembly polls in Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal, Odisha and Sikkim will also be held simultaneously, the Election Commission (EC) said. However, elections for the Jammu and Kashmir assembly, which was dissolved after the ruling coalition between the BJP and the PDP fell apart, will not be held along with the Lok Sabha polls.

Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora said the model code of conduct would come into immediate effect from Sunday and 10 lakhs polling stations would be set up this time as against about nine lakhs in 2014. Nearly 90 crore voters would be eligible to vote for 543 Lok Sabha constituencies across the country.

The election will pit the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance against several opposition parties, including the Congress, the Left and regional forces who are continuing to work out a grand alliance to minimise a division of votes against Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led ruling combine.

The BJP has succeeded in working out seat-sharing formula with some new allies and several old partners, by even making concessions to them in states like Bihar. However, opposition parties are yet to arrive at a deal in several states.

  While the NDA hopes to make history by coming back to power for a second full term, the Opposition wants to unseat the Modi government by raising questions on its performance on a host of issues, including economic growth, employment, corruption and social harmony.

Atal Bihari Vajpayee had led the NDA to back to back Lok Sabha wins in 1998 and 1999 general elections but he was at the helm of only one full-term government.

Announcing the schedule for 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Election Commission said the ?voter verifiable paper audit trail' (VVPAT) will be used in all polling stations this time.

The first phase will be held on April 11, second on April 18, third on April 23 and fourth on April 29, fifth on May 6, sixth on May 12 and seventh phase on May 19.

Counting of votes for all seven phases covering 543 Lok Sabha constituencies would take place on May 23, Arora said.

In the first phase, 91 constituencies will to go for polls, 97 constituencies in the second phase, 115 constituencies in the third, 71 in fourth phase, 51 in fifth phase, 59 in sixth and 59 in the seventh phase.

With the model code of conduct for elections coming into immediate effect, the government cannot announce any policy move that may impact voters' decision.

Arora said all political advertisements on social media will need pre-certification. In 2014, when the BJP swept to power, the Lok Sabha elections were held across nine phases beginning April 7 and ending May 9. The counting of votes had taken place on May 16.

The total contestants in fray were 8,251, with an average of 15 candidates in each constituency. However, deposit was forfeited in case of 7,000 contestants.

A total of over 55 crore voters (66.3 per cent) exercised their vote, while there were 9.27 lakh polling stations. There were nearly 60 lakh NOTA' votes.

Out of total 543 elected candidates, only 62 were women from 668 who had contested.  After suffering losses in assembly polls in three states recently, the BJP believes that its Lok Sabha poll campaign is back on track due to a host of decisions, including 10 per cent quota for the general category poor, money transfer to farmers and presentation of a populist budget.

What has injected further confidence into the NDA fold is the fronting of the nationalist plank in the poll campaign after the Pulwama terror attack, which killed 40 CRPF personnel, that was followed by the Indian Air Force' strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan.

The BJP has been citing 2016 surgical strikes on terror launch pads and these air strikes to assert that only a government headed by Modi will be capable of taking on Pakistan over terrorism, as it has sought to corner the Congress on the issue.

Many political pundits feel the prime minister has already launched a full-fledged campaign accusing opposition parties of coming together for the sole purpose of removing him while he is working to "remove poverty, corruption and terrorism".

He had led the NDA to a sweeping victory in 2014 as it won 336 of 543 Lok Sabha seats, reducing the incumbent Congress to its lowest total of 44 seats. The BJP on its own won a majority, a first for the party, by bagging 282 seats.