Opinion Poll | Balakot air strike gives 'Modi wave' major boost, NDA likely to retain power at Centre

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will sweep a majority of parliamentary seats up for grabs in the election starting April 11, a nationwide opinion poll conducted by News Nation has predicted.

According to the pre-poll survey, the NDA will win 278 seats as compared to 128 for the Congress party-led alliance. A total of 543 seats are up for grabs in the polls.

While the NDA’s seat share witnesses a downfall as compared to the 2014 general elections, it will comfortably form the next government. On the other hand, the Congress, despite an improved performance, could fall way short of the majority mark of 272.

In the 2014 elections, the BJP-led NDA had claimed a landslide victory, winning 336 seats. On the other hand, the United Progressive Alliance, led by the Congress, was restricted to mere 60 seats.

In terms of vote share too, the opinion poll has predicted 35 per cent of the vote share for the NDA – a fall of 3.5 per cent as compared to 2014. On the other hand, the UPA's vote share may witness a jump from 23 per cent in 2014 to 28 per cent this time.

On the question of which leader they want to see as their next prime minister, the nation once again seems to be majorly in favour of Narendra Modi. As per the survey, 48 per cent of the respondents voted in favour of Modi while 29 per cent chose Rahul Gandhi.

Narendra Modi had led the NDA to a sweeping victory in 2014 as it won 336 seats, reducing the incumbent Congress to its lowest total of 44 seats. The BJP had won 282 seats handing a crushing defeat to the 10-year-rule of the United Progressive Alliance led by Congress.

This time, several opposition parties, despite have contrast political ideologies, are trying to come under one roof, in their attempt to dethrone the BJP at the Centre.

The BJP has worked out a seat-sharing formula with some new allies and several old partners, by even making concessions in states such as Bihar, which has 40 seats. However, opposition parties are yet to do so in several states.

After losing three state polls last year, the BJP believes its Lok Sabha campaign is back on track following decisions such as 10 per cent quota for the general category poor, money transfer to farmers and a populist budget.

What has injected further confidence into the NDA fold is the fronting of the nationalist plank in the poll campaign after the Indian Air Force's strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan after the Pulwama terror attack, which killed 40 CRPF personnel.

The BJP has been citing 2016 surgical strikes on terror launch pads and the Balakot air strikes to assert that only a government headed by Modi will be capable of taking on Pakistan over terrorism.

As per the opinion poll, 50 per cent of the respondents believe that the strikes carried out by the IAF in Pakistan's Balakot will benefit the Modi government while 17 per cent said no.

However, at the same time, 40 per cent of the respondents said the BJP is doing politics over the Balakot airstrike while 34 per cent said the Congress is using it for political gains.

Let's take a look at some other highlights from the News Nation Opinion Poll before we analyse the state-wise surveys:

• Will Congress' pre-poll promise of assured minimum income of Rs 72,000 per year to 5 crore poor families impact the Lok Sabha election results? 42 per cent respondents said it will benefit the Congress, 41 per cent said it will not affect the poll results.
• Are charges levelled on Modi government by Rahul Gandhi over the Rafale deal valid? YES – 39%, NO – 44%.
• Will Ram Mandir be an issue for you while voting in the Lok Sabha elections? YES – 39%, NO – 43%.
• Has the Modi government given befitting reply to Pakistan? YES – 60%, NO – 30%.
• What will be the main issue while voting in the upcoming elections? Employment – 22%, Inflation – 17%, Prime Minister Face – 11%, Corruption – 9%.
• 49 per cent of the respondents said they are satisfied with the work done by the Modi government in the last five years while 38 per cent said the government has failed.

Here's a state-wise surveys to get an in-depth approximation of how the parties may perform in the upcoming elections.

Uttar Pradesh

The alliance between the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is likely to hurt the BJP's prospects in Uttar Pradesh. As per the survey, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance may win 41 of the 80 seats while BJP's seat share may come down from 71 seats in 2014 to 37 this time. The Congress may win on two seats, most likely Amethi and Rae Bareli – the two of the party's strongholds.

Madhya Pradesh

Recovering from the Assembly polls defeat it suffered at the Congress' hands last year, the BJP is expected to win 20 of the 29 seats in the state. The Congress may claim victory on the remaining nine seats, as per the survey.  

Rajasthan

The BJP's seat share is likely to witness a considerable downfall as compared to 2014 Lok Sabha polls. As per the opinion poll, the BJP may win 18 seats against the seven seats of the Congress.

Gujarat

The BJP is expected to win 21 seats while the Congress may win on five seats in the coastal state. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the saffron party had made a clean sweep winning all the 26 seats in the state.

Chhattisgarh

The 2018 Assembly polls in the state had come as a shocker for the BJP after it lost its stronghold to the Congress. The impact may be seen in the Lok Sabha elections too. As per the survey, the BJP may win just four seats while the Congress may emerge victorious on seven seats.

Bihar

The BJP-JD(U)-LJP alliance in Bihar is likely to outplay the RJD-led grand alliance in Bihar, with the former is expected to win 31 seats and the latter nine seats. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance had won on 31 seats. Upendra Kushwaha's RLSP has joined hands with the RJD-led grand alliance this time.

West Bengal

Mamata Banerjee'sl Trinamool Congress is likely to continue its dominance in West Bengal. On the other hand, the BJP is expected to put up a much improved show this time. The survey has predicted victory on 32 seats for Trinamool while the BJP may win nine seats.

Maharashtra

The BJP restoring ties with the Shiv Sena is likely to benefit it in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra. According to the opinion poll, the NDA is likely to win 32 seats while the Congress-NCP alliance may win only 16 seats.

Assam

In Assam, the BJP is expected to win eight seats while the Congress will claim victory on five seats. One seat will go in AIUDF's account. In 2014, the BJP had won seven seats, while AIUDF and Congress won three seats each.

Odisha

The BJP is likely to win 12 seats (vote share of 34 per cent) while Naveen Patnaik's BJD may claim victory on nine seats. In 2014, the BJP had won one seat and the BJD 20 seats. 

Jammu and Kashmir

The BJP, the Congress and the National Conference are likely to win two seats each in the state. Last month, the NC and Congress sealed an alliance for three Lok Sabha seats in Jammu and Kashmir and decided to go for friendly contests on three other seats.

Himachal Pradesh

The BJP is likely to repeat its 2014 performance when it swept all four seats in the state. As per the survey, the BJP is again expected to win all the seats with a vote share of 48 per cent. 

Punjab

Here, the BJP-SAD alliance is expected to win five of 13 seats while Congress may claim victory on seven seats. The survey has predicted one seat may go in AAP's account. 

Haryana

The BJP is expected to repeat its performance of 2014 when it won seven seats. The Congress is likely to win two seats while Dushyant Chautala's Jannayak Janata Party may win one seat. 

Delhi

The BJP is expected to win six seats while the Aam Aadmi Party may win one seat, as per the opinion poll. In 2014, the BJP had won all seven seats. 

Uttarakhand

According to the News Nation Opinion Poll, the BJP is likely to win all five seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls in the state. 

Jharkhand

In Jharkhand, the BJP-AJSU alliance is likely to win nine seats while the UPA (Congress, RJD, JMM, JVM and CPI) may win five seats. 

Karnataka

The BJP is expected to emerge victorious on 16 seats while the Congress-JDS combine may win on the remaining 12 seats here. In 2014, the BJP had won 17 seats and the Congress and JDS, which fought separately, had nine and two seats respectively. 

Tamil Nadu

The BJP forging alliance with the AIADMK, PMK and DMDK in the state is likely to earn it 18 seats here. On the other hand, the Congress-DMK-Left alliance is expected to win 21 seats.