Rajasthan Exit Poll: Congress unlikely to overcome Modi factor, BJP may win 22 seats

In Rajasthan, the BJP is expected to win 22 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats – a loss of three seats in comparison to the 2014 general elections when it made a clean sweep, according to the exit poll conducted by News Nation.

According to the data of the exit poll, the BJP will garner 52 per cent votes in the state.

On the other hand, despite its victory in the 2018 Assembly polls, the Congress is unlikely to show any considerable improvement in its performance and is expected to win just three seats.

In the assembly polls, the Congress won 99 seats, BJP won 73 and BSP won 6 seats out of the 199 seats that went to polls. The Congress, which emerged as the single largest party, got the support of BSP to form the government.

A major reason for the BJP’s defeat in state elections was dubbed to be the perceived hostility towards Vasundhara Raje.

While the state has been voting the BJP and the Congress alternatively to power, the story is totally different when it comes to choosing a government at the Centre. The BJP, which has entered into an alliance with the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, won all the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state, with a 55.6 per cent vote share, in 2014.

While the News Nation exit poll has predicted 22 seats for the BJP, the India TV-CNX Exit Poll has predicted 21 seats for the saffron party. On the contrary, the India Today-My Axis Exit Poll has predicted a victory on 24 seats for the BJP in Haryana.  

This time, the BJP and the Congress are locked in a direct contest and are trying to retain their traditional vote banks while also attempting to win “swing votes”.

Though agrarian distress and unemployment are among the major issues in almost all constituencies of the State, the recent UN action of Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar and the Balakot air strikes are high on the narrative in the districts bordering Pakistan.

The News Nation has predicted 286 seats for the BLP-led NDA, which means that Narendra Modi will return as the prime minister.