Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll: ‘Mahagathbandhan' may give tough fight to NDA, likely to win 41 seats

The pre-poll alliance between the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in Uttar Pradesh for the Lok Sabha elections 2019 may deal a massive blow to the Bharatiya Janata Party's dream to repeat the 2014 poll magic, according the News Nation's opinion poll. The opinion poll suggests that the 'Mahagathbandhan' will win 41 seats in the state while the BJP and the Apna Dal may garner only 37 seats in the elections beginning from April 11. The Congress seems to be repeating its performance in the 2019 polls with opinion poll predicting that it will win just two seats.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP and Apna Dal swept the state and won 73 seats together (BJP-71 and Apna Dal-2). The BJP completely routed the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Congress and the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the state. Both the BSP and the Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) were not able to open their accounts in the Lok Sabha polls.

In terms of vote share, the BJP-AD alliance seems to be performing better with 43 per cent votes and the SP-BSP-RLD grand alliance will have to satisfy with 39 per cent votes. The Congress-led UPA will garner 12 per cent votes.

The BJP had received 3,43,18,854 votes with a vote share of 42.63 per cent in the state in 2014. Its alliance partner Apna Dal secured close to 1 per cent votes in the state and won 2 seats of Mirzapur and Pratapgarh. The Congress was able to get 60,61,267 votes with a vote share of just 7.53 per cent. The Samajwadi Party under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav was stunned by the saffron party and was able to garner 1,79,88,967 votes in the state with a vote share of 22.35 per cent. The party won only 5 seats.

The BSP received 1,59,14,194 votes with a decent vote share of 19.77 per cent but failed to win a single seat in the state. The RLD, which allied itself with the Congress, got 6,89,409 votes in the state but both Ajit Singh and his son Jayant Chaudhary lost from Baghpat and Mathura seats respectively.

In 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won only 10 seats whereas the Congress had 21 members from the state. The SP was the biggest party with 23 seats and the BSP had won 20 seats. The RLD won 5 seats in the state as one of the constituents of the BJP-led NDA.

Uttar Pradesh – the politically-sensitive state which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha – will go to polls in seven phases starting April 11, the Election Commission announced on Sunday. Voting in Uttar Pradesh will be held on April 11, April 18, April 23, April 29, May 6, May 12 and May 19. The counting of votes will take place on May 23.