2019 Lok Sabha Election Analysis: What happened in Goa in 2014 polls? What will happen this year?

Lok Sabha Elections 2019: The Election Commission of India (ECI) has finally sounded the poll bugle and declared the schedule for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 on March 10. The Lok Sabha Elections 2019 will be held in seven phases, starting from April 11. The results will be declared on May 23. 91 constituencies will go for polls in the first phase on April 11, followed by 97 constituencies in the second phase on April 18. The third phase will be held on April 23 and fourth on April 29, fifth on May 6, sixth on May 12 and seventh phase on May 19. 115 constituencies will go for polls in the third phase, 71 in the fourth phase, 51 in the fifth phase, 59 in the sixth phase and 59 in the seventh phase. We are also gearing up for the elections and are coming up with a series: 2019 Lok Sabha Election Analysis: What happened in 2014 Lok Sabha Polls? What will happen this year? Let us look at the political scenario in the state of Goa. 

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept the state in 2014 Lok Sabha elections but lost its majority in 2017 Assembly elections. However, the party was able to form the government in Goa again under the leadership of Manohar Parrikar with the support of Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), Goa Forward Party (GFP) and some independents. In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the party emerged victorious in both the parliamentary seats (North Goa and South Goa). In 2012 Assembly elections, the BJP was in an alliance with the MGP and managed to get the majority on its own. The party won 21 seats in the 40-member Assembly and Manohar Parrikar became the chief minister. Parrikar was the chief minister of the state between 2000 and 2002 and again from 2002 to 2005. In November 2014, Parrikar had to resign as the chief minister after Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose him to lead the Defence Ministry. BJP's Laxmikant Parsekar took over as the chief minister but lost the elections in 2017. Let's discuss state politics in detail. Also Read: Lok Sabha Elections 2019: When will you vote? Know poll dates of your seat here

Lok Sabha Elections 2019: When will Goa vote?
Goa will vote in a single phase on April 23. Polling will be held on North Goa and South Goa parliamentary constituencies in the third phase. Both the seats are currently held by the BJP.

What happened in Goa in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections?
In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won a decisive mandate in Goa and captured both the seats in the state. The party won the South Goa Lok Sabha seat only for the second time in 2014. BJP's Narendra Keshav Sawaikar defeated Congress party's Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco with a good margin. The party won the seat for the first time in 1999 when Ramakant Angle emerged victorious from the seat. The party also won the North Goa seat in 2014 when Shripad Yesso Naik defeated Congress party's Ravi Naik. Shripad Yesso Naik has been winning the seat since 1999.

The BJP received 4,36,679 votes with a massive vote share of 54.1 per cent. The Congress drew a blank in Goa also and received 2,98,750 votes with a vote share of 37 per cent.

According to our analysis, the BJP was ahead in 33 Assembly segments during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress was leading on just 7.

What was the result of Goa Assembly Elections in 2017?
The BJP failed to repeat its Lok Sabha poll performance in the 2017 Assembly elections in Goa and lost its majority in the state. The party managed to win just 13 seats in the state and the incumbent chief minister Laxmikant Parsekar also lost his own seat. The Congress emerged as the single largest party in the state with 17 seats but missed the opportunity to form the government in Goa after the BJP cobbled up a quick coalition with the MGP, the Vijay Sardesai-led GFP and some independents. The BJP with 9 legislators of these parties crossed the magic figure of 21 in the state Assembly. Manohar Parrikar returned to the state as the chief minister again.

The BJP received 2,97,588 votes with a vote share of 32.5 per cent. The Congress managed to get 2,59,758 votes with a vote share of 28.35 per cent. The MGP and the newly-formed GFP received 11.3 per cent and 3.5 per cent vote share in the polls respectively. Both the parties won 3 seats each. In 2012 Assembly polls, the Congress won 9 seats whereas the BJP was successful in 21 seats.

What is the current scenario in Goa in 2019?
After Manohar Parrikar's death, Pramod Sawant is heading the BJP-led coalition government in the state. Two MLAs of the MGP have recently defected to the BJP. Both Deepak Pauskar and Manohar Ajgaonkar left the MGP and joined the saffron party and raised the BJP numbers in the Assembly to 14. Sawant also decided to drop MGP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Sudin Dhavalikar from his Cabinet. The current strength of the Assembly is reduced to 36 as four seats – Mandrem, Panaji, Mapusa and Shiroda – are vacant. Two Congress MLAs Dayanand Sopte and Subhash Shirodkar split from the Grand Old Party and joined the BJP. Both Sopte and Shirodkar will be contesting bypolls in Mandrem and Shiroda, while Panaji and Mapusa are lying vacant due to the deaths of Parrikar and senior BJP leader Francis D'Souza. Vishwajit Rane, son of former Congress chief minister Pratapsingh Rane, defected to the BJP in March 2017 and was later re-elected as a BJP MLA.

Both the BJP and the Congress have declared candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in the state. The BJP has re-nominated both its lawmakers – Shripad Yesso Naik and Narendra Keshav Sawaikar – from North Goa and South Goa seats respectively. Congress party’s Girish Chodankar will take on Naik in North Goa whereas senior leader Francisco Sardinha has been pitted against Sawaikar in South Goa.

What is News Nation Opinion Poll verdict in Goa?
According to News Nation Opinion Poll, the BJP is likely to get 44 per cent of vote share in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. The Congress may get 39 per cent of votes, predicts the poll. The BJP may again win both the seats in 2019.

HIGHLIGHTS

• The BJP swept the state in 2014 LS polls but lost its majority in 2017 elections.
• Polling will be held on North Goa and South Goa seats in the third phase.
• After Parrikar's death, Pramod Sawant is heading the BJP-led government.