2019 Lok Sabha Election Analysis: What happened in UP in 2014 polls? What will happen this year?

Lok Sabha Elections 2019: The Election Commission of India (ECI) has finally sounded the poll bugle and declared the schedule for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 on March 10. The Lok Sabha Elections 2019 will be held in seven phases, starting from April 11. The results will be declared on May 23. 91 constituencies will go for polls in the first phase on April 11, followed by 97 constituencies in the second phase on April 18. The third phase will be held on April 23 and fourth on April 29, fifth on May 6, sixth on May 12 and seventh phase on May 19. 115 constituencies will go for polls in the third phase, 71 in the fourth phase, 51 in the fifth phase, 59 in the sixth phase and 59 in the seventh phase. We are also gearing up for the elections and are coming up with a series: 2019 Lok Sabha Election Analysis: What happened in 2014 Lok Sabha Polls? What will happen this year? Let us look at the political scenario in the state of Uttar Pradesh. 

With 80 Lok Sabha seats, Uttar Pradesh has the most parliamentary seats and is also the largest state of India by population. The BJP has been ruling the state since 2017 under Yogi Adityanath and made a comeback in Uttar Pradesh after 15 long years. Rajnath Singh was the last chief minister of the party in the state in 2002. The SP and the BSP ruled the state between this period. BSP chief Mayawati became the chief minister in 1995 with BJP's support after her alliance with Mulayam Singh Yadav's SP fell apart. However, the saffron party withdrew its support and Mayawati had to resign. She again became the chief minister in 1997 and 2002 with BJP's support but couldn't complete her term. In 2007, the BSP won 206 seats on its own and Mayawati became the chief minister for the fourth term and completed her term in office. Mulayam Singh Yadav ruled the state for three terms, his last being from 2003 to 2007. In 2012, the SP defeated the BSP and Akhilesh Yadav took control of the state. Akhilesh had to ally with the Congress party after party's disastrous showing in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls but the alliance between Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh failed to make any impact in the state and the SP was reduced to its historic low of 47 seats in the Assembly. The BSP also faced a massive rout and ended up in winning just 19 seats. In order to stop the juggernaut of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah in the state, the BSP and the SP decided to bury the hatchet and formed 'Mahagathbandhan' along with Ajit Singh's RLD for 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The parties also took a decision to exclude the Congress party from their alliance in a big jolt to Rahul Gandhi. Let's discuss state politics in detail. Also Read: Lok Sabha Elections 2019: When will you vote? Know poll dates of your seat here

Lok Sabha Elections 2019: When will Uttar Pradesh vote?
Uttar Pradesh will vote in all seven phases on April 11, 18, 23, 29, May 6, 12 and 19. Polling will be held in 8 Lok Sabha seats namely Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Baghpat, Kairana, Meerut, Bijnor, Saharanpur and Muzaffarnagar in the first phase. Aligarh, Nagina, Hathras, Mathura, Bulandshahr, Amroha, Agra and Fatehpur Sikri will go for polls in the second phase on April 18. People in Sambhal, Moradabad, Rampur, Pilibhit, Badaun, Mainpuri, Firozabad, Bareilly, Etah and Aonla will vote on April 23 whereas voting in 13 seats (Jhansi, Misrikh, Jalaun, Hamirpur, Akbarpur, Kanpur, Kannauj, Kheri, Hardoi, Unnao, Etawah, Farrukhabad and Shahjahanpur) will take place on April 29. Lucknow, Banda, Amethi, Faizabad, Barabanki, Gonda, Bahraich, Kaiserganj, Sitapur, Rae Bareli, Dhaurahra, Fatehpur, Kaushambi and Mohanlalganj will vote on May 6 and voters in 14 seats (Allahabad, Sultanpur, Phulpur, Pratapgarh, Lalganj, Basti, Bhadohi, Sant Kabir Nagar, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Machhlishahr, Shrawasti, Domariyaganj and Ambedkar Nagar) will use their franchise on May 12. The remaining 13 seats of Mirzapur, Kushi Nagar, Deoria, Ghazipur, Varanasi, Gorakhpur, Bansgaon, Maharajganj, Robertsganj, Ballia, Ghosi, Chandauli and Salempur will vote in the last phase on May 19.

What happened in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections?
In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) along with its ally Apna Dal swept the state and won 73 seats together. The BJP completely routed the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Congress and the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the state. Both the BSP and the Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) were not able to open their accounts in the Lok Sabha polls. Uttar Pradesh sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha and such a massive victory facilitated the BJP's grand comeback at the Centre. 

The BJP received 3,43,18,854 votes with a vote share of 42.6 per cent and won 71 seats in Uttar Pradesh. Its alliance partner Apna Dal secured close to 1 per cent votes in the state and won 2 seats of Mirzapur and Pratapgarh. The Congress was able to get 60,61,267 votes with a vote share of just 7.5 per cent and won 2 seats of Amethi and Rae Bareli. The Samajwadi Party under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav was stunned by the saffron party and was able to garner 1,79,88,967 votes in the state with a vote share of 22.3 per cent. The party won only 5 seats.

The BSP received 1,59,14,194 votes with a decent vote share of 19.8 per cent but failed to win a single seat in the state. The RLD, which allied itself with the Congress, got 6,89,409 votes in the state but both Ajit Singh and his son Jayant Chaudhary lost from Baghpat and Mathura seats respectively. 

The 2014 election in the state was held in six phases on April 10, 17, 24, 30, May 7 and 12. In 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won only 10 seats whereas the Congress had 21 members from the state. The SP was the biggest party with 23 seats and the BSP had won 20 seats. The RLD won 5 seats in the state as one of the constituents of the BJP-led NDA.

Some of the prominent winners in 2014 were Narendra Modi (BJP-Varanasi), Rajnath Singh (BJP-Lucknow), Murli Manohar Joshi (BJP-Kanpur), Vijay Kumar Singh (BJP-Ghaziabad), Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP-Azamgarh), Dimple Yadav (SP-Kannauj), Akshay Yadav (SP-Firozabad), Sonia Gandhi (Congress-Rae Bareli), Rahul Gandhi (Congress-Amethi), Ram Shankar Katheria (BJP-Agra), Hema Malini (BJP-Mathura), Sanjeev Kumar Balyan (BJP-Muzaffarnagar), Uma Bharti (BJP-Jhansi), Kalraj Mishra (BJP-Deoria), Maneka Gandhi (BJP-Pilibhit), Varun Gandhi (BJP-Sultanpur), Yogi Adityanath (BJP-Gorakhpur), Keshav Prasad Maurya (BJP-Phulpur), Anupriya Singh Patel (Apna Dal-Mirzapur), Mahendra Nath Pandey (BJP-Chandauli), Manoj Sinha (BJP-Ghazipur), Jagdambika Pal (BJP-Domariyaganj), Niranjan Jyoti (BJP-Fatehpur), Sakshi Maharaj (BJP-Unnao), Santosh Kumar Gangwar (BJP-Bareilly), Mahesh Sharma (BJP-Gautam Buddha Nagar), Satyapal Singh (BJP-Baghpat), Hukum Singh (BJP-Kairana), Lallu Singh (BJP-Faizabad) and Savitri Bai Phule (BJP-Bahraich). 

Arvind Kejriwal (AAP), Smriti Irani (BJP), Jitin Prasada (Congress), Amar Singh (RLD), Kumar Vishwas (AAP), Raj Babbar (Congress), Ajit Singh (RLD), Sriprakash Jaiswal (Congress), Jaya Prada (RLD), Saleem Iqbal Shervani (Congress), Ramji Lal Suman (SP), Jayant Chaudhary (RLD), Kaiser Jahan (BSP), Haji Mohammad  Yaqoob (BSP), Shahid Manzoor (SP), Kunwar Sarvraj Singh (SP), Salman Khurshid (Congress), Begum Noor Bano (Congress), Narendra Bhati (SP), Zafar Alam (SP), Imran Masood (Congress), Mohammad Shahid Akhlak (BSP), Shafiqur Rahman Barq (SP), Arvind Kumar Singh (BSP), DP Yadav (RPD), SP Singh Baghel (BJP), RPN Singh (Congress), Beni Prasad Verma (Congress), Usha Verma (SP), Shazia Ilmi Malik (AAP), Praveen Singh Aron (Congress), Pramod Krishnam (Congress), Nagma (Congress), Annu Tandon (Congress), RK Chaudhary (BSP), Abhishek Mishra (SP), Jaaved Jaaferi (AAP), Rita Bahuguna Joshi (Congress), Ameeta Singh (Congress), Rajkumari Ratna Singh (Congress), Raja Ram Pal (Congress), Pradeep Jain Aditya (Congress), RK Singh Patel (BSP), Shailendra Kumar (SP), Mohammad Kaif (Congress), Kunwar Rewati Raman Singh (SP), Nand Gopal Gupta Nandi (Congress), Adarsh Shastri (AAP), Mitrasen Yadav (SP), Nirmal Khatri (Congress), Atiq Ahmad (SP), Lal Ji Verma (BSP), Akbar Ahmad Dumpy (BSP), Dr Baliram (BSP), Ramakant Yadav (BJP), Mukhtar Ansari (QED), Dara Singh Chauhan (BSP), Om Prakash Rajbhar (SBSP), Neeraj Shekhar (SP), Afzal Ansari (QED) and Tufani Saroj (SP) lost the elections. 

According to our analysis, the BJP was ahead in 328 Assembly segments during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Its ally Apna Dal was ahead in 9 seats. The SP, BSP and Congress were leading on 42, 9 and 15 seats respectively. 

What was the result of Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections in 2017?
The BJP carried forward its Lok Sabha success in the 2017 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and along with its allies Apna Dal and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) won 325 seats in the state. The BJP won 312 seats on its own and received 3,44,03,039 votes with a vote share of 39.7 per cent. The Apna Dal and the SBSP won 9 and 4 seats respectively. The SP forged an alliance with the Congress but failed miserably and lost power. The SP received 1,89,23,689 votes with a vote share of 22 per cent and won 47 seats whereas the Congress got 54,16,324 votes with a vote share of 6.2 per cent and won only 7 seats. The Grand Old Party got 2 seats less than the Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal. The SP had contested on 298 seats and the Congress on 105 seats.

The BSP received 1,92,81,352 votes with a vote share of 22.2 per cent but won only 19 seats in the Assembly. The RLD was able to garner 15,45,810 votes with a vote share of 1.8 per cent and won a single seat. 

In 2012 Assembly polls, the SP won 224 seats whereas the BSP was successful in 80 seats. The BJP was able to win just 47 seats that time while the Congress won 28.

What is the current scenario in Uttar Pradesh in 2019?
The SP, BSP and RLD have forged an alliance in Uttar Pradesh to challenge the BJP. According to the deal, the BSP is contesting on 38 seats whereas the SP will field candidates on 37 seats. The Ajit Singh-led RLD will be contesting from Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar and Mathura. The alliance has left Amethi and Rae Bareli for the Congress party. Meanwhile, the Congress party has also decided to leave six seats namely Azamgarh, Firozabad, Kannauj, Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar and Manipuri for 'Mahagathbandhan' leaders. The alliance between the Congress and 'Mahagathbandhan' couldn't materialise and the Grand Old Party had to establish alliances with smaller outfits such as Apna Dal (Krishna Patel), Jan Adhikar Party and Mahan Dal. However, the party is hoping to create a miracle in the state with the introduction of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra into active politics from Uttar Pradesh.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with BJP chief Amit Shah. (Photo: PTI)

The BJP, on the other hand, finalised its alliance with the Apna Dal (Sonelal) and left Robertsganj and Mirzapur seats for it. In a big political development, the BJP wooed the NISHAD Party and inducted 'giant killer' Pravin Nishad into its fold. Nishad won the Gorakhpur bypoll on a Samajwadi Party ticket with a BSP support. The BJP also lost Kairana and Phulpur bypolls due to this experiment. The SP-BSP-RLD alliance can get a jolt if Akhilesh Yadav's estranged uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav can cut through the Yadav vote bank of the SP. Shivpal has founded his own outfit Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia) and is contesting elections from Firozabad.

Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra campaigning for her party candidates in Uttar Pradesh. (File photo: PTI)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is again contesting from Varanasi and Home Minister Rajnath Singh will try his luck for the second consecutive time from Lucknow. Other important BJP candidates are Vijay Kumar Singh (Ghaziabad), Mahesh Sharma (Gautam Buddha Nagar), Smriti Irani (Amethi), Hema Malini (Mathura), Jaya Prada (Rampur), Maneka Gandhi (Pilibhit), Varun Gandhi (Sultanpur) and Jagdambika Pal (Domariyaganj). SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is contesting from Azamgarh whereas Mulayam Singh Yadav from Mainpuri. Congress chief Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi are contesting from Amethi and Rae Bareli seats respectively. Some other prominent candidates are Ajit Singh (RLD-Muzaffarnagar), Jayant Chaudhary (RLD-Baghpat), Raj Babbar (Congress-Fatehpur Sikri), Sanjay Singh (Congress-Sultanpur), Sriprakash Jaiswal (Congress-Kanpur), Naseemuddin Siddiqui (Congress-Bijnor), Dharmendra Yadav (SP-Badaun) and Hazi Mohammad Yakoob (BSP-Meerut).

What is News Nation Opinion Poll verdict in Uttar Pradesh?
According to News Nation Opinion Poll, the BJP is likely to get 37 per cent of vote share in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. The 'Mahagathbandhan' of SP, BSP and RLD is projected to get 39 per cent of vote share in the state. The Congress may get 13 per cent of votes, predicts the poll.

The BJP may win 37 seats and the alliance can win 42 seats in 2019. So, the BJP is projected to lose almost half of its strength in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh. The party along with its ally Apna Dal won 73 seats in 2014. According to the poll, the Congress can hope to get a single seat in the state as compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

HIGHLIGHTS

• The BJP carried forward its Lok Sabha success in the 2017 Assembly elections.
• The SP, BSP and RLD have forged an alliance in UP to challenge the BJP.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi is again contesting from Varanasi.