2019 Lok Sabha Election Analysis: What happened in Uttarakhand in 2014 polls? What will happen this year?

Lok Sabha Elections 2019: The Election Commission of India (ECI) has finally sounded the poll bugle and declared the schedule for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 on March 10. The Lok Sabha Elections 2019 will be held in seven phases, starting from April 11. The results will be declared on May 23. 91 constituencies will go for polls in the first phase on April 11, followed by 97 constituencies in the second phase on April 18. The third phase will be held on April 23 and fourth on April 29, fifth on May 6, sixth on May 12 and seventh phase on May 19. 115 constituencies will go for polls in the third phase, 71 in the fourth phase, 51 in the fifth phase, 59 in the sixth phase and 59 in the seventh phase. We are also gearing up for the elections and are coming up with a series: 2019 Lok Sabha Election Analysis: What happened in 2014 Lok Sabha Polls? What will happen this year? Let us look at the political scenario in the state of Uttarakhand. The BJP swept the state in 2017 and decimated the Congress party in the Assembly elections. Trivendra Singh Rawat became the chief minister beating several senior contenders such as Bhagat Singh Koshyari, BC Khanduri and Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank. In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the saffron party emerged victorious on all the 5 parliamentary seats. The party repeated its performance in the 2017 Assembly elections also. The BJP ruled the state from 2000 (formation year) to 2002 and lost the state at the hands of the Congress. Nityanand Swami was the first chief minister of the state from 2000 to 2001 and was replaced by Bhagat Singh Koshyari. Veteran Congress leader Narayan Datt Tiwari then had an uninterrupted reign from 2002 to 2007. In 2007 Assembly polls, the BJP made a comeback in the state and formed its government under the leadership of Bhuwan Chandra Khanduri. However, Khanduri was replaced by Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank in 2009 after the party's debacle in the Lok Sabha elections. The party lost all the five seats in the state. However, Khanduri again became the chief minister just before 5 months of the Assembly elections. The party lost the elections in a very close fight with Congress. The saffron party managed to win 31 seats in the 70-member Assembly whereas the Congress got 32 seats and cobbled up a coalition with the BSP, the UKD and some independents to form the government in the state. Vijay Bahuguna became the chief minister but was later removed by the party after the mismanagement of 2013 Uttarakhand floods. Harish Rawat replaced Bahuguna in 2014. Let's discuss state politics in detail. Also Read: Lok Sabha Elections 2019: When will you vote? Know poll dates of your seat here

Lok Sabha Elections 2019: When will Uttarakhand vote?
Uttarakhand will vote in a single phase on April 11. Polling will be held on Haridwar, Tehri Garhwal, Almora, Garhwal and Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar seats in the first phase.

What happened in Uttarakhand in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections?
In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP swept the state and won all the 5 seats in Uttarakhand. The BJP received 24,29,698 votes with a whopping vote share of 55.93 per cent. The Congress drew a blank in the yet another state and received 14,94,440 votes with a vote share of 34.40 per cent. The BSP got the vote share of around 5 per cent in the elections. BJP's Mala Rajya Laxmi Shah defeated Congress candidate Saket Bahuguna, son of Vijay Bahuguna, by over 1,90,000 votes in Tehri Garhwal constituency. In Garhwal constituency, Bhuwan Chandra Khanduri defeated Congress leader Harak Singh Rawat by over 1,80,000 votes.

BJP's Ajay Tamta defeated Congress candidate Pradeep Tamta by over 95,000 votes in Almora. In Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar seat, Congress candidate KC Singh Baba was humbled by BJP's senior leader Bhagat Singh Koshyari by a massive margin of over 2,80,000 votes. Even Harish Rawat's wife Renuka Rawat couldn't win the Haridwar Lok Sabha seat and lost at the hands of BJP's Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank by over 1,75,000 votes. Several senior Congress leaders like Vijay Bahuguna, Harak Singh Rawat and Satpal Maharaj revolted against Harish Rawat and joined the BJP before the polls. 

According to our analysis, the BJP was ahead in 63 Assembly segments during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress was leading on just 7. The 2014 Lok Sabha polls was a complete reversal of the 2009 Lok Sabha polls when the Congress party won all the 5 seats in the state.

What was the result of Uttarakhand Assembly Elections in 2017?
The BJP carried forward its Lok Sabha success in the Assembly elections also in Uttarakhand and defeated the ruling Congress in the state. The BJP won 57 seats in the state and received 23,14,250 votes with a vote share of 46.5 per cent. The total strength of the Uttarakhand Assembly is 70.

The Congress was reduced to 11 seats in the state with a vote share of 33.5 per cent. The party received 16,66,379 votes in the state. The BSP managed to get 7 per cent votes in the polls. In 2012 Assembly polls, the Congress won 32 seats whereas the BJP was successful in 31 seats.

What is the current scenario in Uttarakhand in 2019?
The BJP and the Congress are the two principal parties in Uttarakhand with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) as a third force in the state. According to reports, the BJP is not going to give tickets to its veteran leaders Bhuwan Chandra Khanduri and Bhagat Singh Koshyari this time from Garhwal and Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar constituencies respectively. The party is likely to field Tirath Singh Rawat and Ajay Bhatt from these two constituencies this time. The saffron party, however, may retain its sittings MPs Ajay Tamta, Mala Rajya Laxmi Shah and Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank. In a big jolt to the BJP, BC Khanduri's son Manish Khanduri joined the Congress party in the presence of Rahul Gandhi and is likely to be fielded from Garhwal seat. The party may opt for Harish Rawat and Pritam Singh from Haridwar and Tehri Garhwal seats respectively.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi with former Uttarakhand chief minister Harish Rawat. (File photo: PTI)

The BJP has won the Almora Lok Sabha seat 6 times since 1991 barring 2009 when it lost the seat to the Congress. The saffron party has won the Haridwar Lok Sabha seat 5 times since 1991 and lost the seat in a row in 2004 to the Samajwadi Party and in 2009 to the Congress. The party was successful on Tehri Garhwal seat for 5 consecutive times from 1991 to 2004 and 7 times overall. The party lost the seat to Congress leader Vijay Bahuguna in 2007 bypoll and 2009 Lok Sabha polls. Meanwhile, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) have forged an alliance in Uttarakhand replicating their Uttar Pradesh pact in the state also. The BSP will announce its candidates for four seats, while the SP will field its candidate on a single seat. However, there is no third force in the state as such and the battle is likely to be fought between the two national parties in Uttarakhand.

What is News Nation Opinion Poll verdict in Uttarakhand?
According to News Nation Opinion Poll, the BJP is likely to get 42 per cent of vote share in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. The Congress may get 34 per cent of votes, predicts the poll. The BJP may win 4 seats, the Congress can win 1 seat in 2019. So, the BJP is projected to lose a seat in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls in Uttarakhand. According to the poll, the Congress can open its account this time in the state.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a massive double-digit lead over Congress chief Rahul Gandhi in Uttarakhand when the respondents were asked about their favourite Prime Ministerial candidate in 2019. Modi got the backing of 52 per cent people, while only 23 per cent chose Rahul Gandhi.

HIGHLIGHTS

• In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP swept the state and won all the 5 seats.
• The BJP won 57 seats in the 2017 Assembly polls. The Congress won 11.
• Trivendra Singh Rawat became the chief minister in 2017.