2019 Lok Sabha Elections: SP-BSP alliance may shatter of PM Modi's dream, find surveys

Recovering from the fresh blows in the recently held assembly elections in three states – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh – the Bharatiya Janata Party may face a bigger challenge from Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. According to a series of pre-poll surveys conducted by ABP News-C Voter, the SP-BSP alliance, if it works out, in Uttar Pradesh can play a spoilsport in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dream for the second term, if the elections are held today.

According to the survey, the BJP-led NDA will be reduced to 247 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, 25 short of a clear majority. In the 2014 general elections, the BJP had won 282 seats on its own, while the NDA secured 336 seats. However, if the SP-BSP alliance fails to work out, the NDA will come to power with 291 seats, 19 more than required. The survey has a predicted that the SP-BSP alliance will win 50 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while the NDA could bag only 28 seats, a loss of 43 seats from the last general elections.

In another survey -- National Approval Ratings -- conducted by Republic TV and CVoter, the BJP is projected to win only 218 seats, while along with its allies, including JDU, LJP, Apna Dal and others, the NDA is projected to win 247 seats.  

The Congress, on the other hand, is projected to win 105 seats, helping the UPA reach a projected seat-share tally of 171. The Rahul Gandhi-led Congress could secure 44 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The DMK could emerge as the Congress's most influential ally with 30 seats in Tamil Nadu.

According to the Republic TV and CVoter December survey, SP-BSP alliance may win 50 seats in Uttar Pradesh.

According to sources, the SP and the BSP have stitched a pre-poll alliance for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh. Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) will also be a part of the anti-BJP alliance which excludes the Congress party. According to the sources, the Samajwadi Party will contest 37 seats, while the Bahujan Samaj Party will fight on 38 of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies.

Three seats - Baghpat, Mathura, Kairana - will go to Ajit Singh's RLD. Singh is likely to contest from his stronghold Baghpat while his son Jayant Choudhary will once again contest from Mathura. BJP's Hema Malini had defeated Jayant from Mathura constituency in 2014. The alliance, however, will not field its candidates on Amethi and Raebareli - the traditional seats of Congress chief Rahul Gandhi and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi.