Thumping victory for Congress in Rajasthan, simple majority in Madhya Pradesh: Opinion poll

A latest opinion poll by C-Voter may give Vasundhara Raje and Shivraj Singh Chouhan some sleepless nights as the survey projected a thumping majority for the Congress with 145 seats in Rajasthan and a simple majority in Madhya Pradesh.

In its November (week 2) poll, the C-Voter has also projected a clear majority of 64 seats to the Congress-TDP combine in Telangana and a very close fight in Chhattisgarh with a slight edge for the BJP.

According to the poll, the Congress, which is currently in the opposition, may secure 47.9 per cent of the total votes, while Raje’s BJP will bag only 45 seats in the 200-member assembly, with 39.7 per cent vote share.

The Congress may come back to power in Madhya Pradesh with a simple majority of 116 seats against Chouhan-led BJP’s 107 seats in the  231-member assembly.

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Predicting a close fight in Chhattisgarh, the C-Voter poll survey gave 41 seats to the Congress with a 42.2 per cent vote share, with six seats to others and 16.2 per cent vote share. The BJP is projected to get a slightly lower 41.6 per cent vote share and 43 seats.

The opinion poll did not give a clear majority to any party in Mizoram, with the Mizo National Front projected to lead with 17 seats, followed by the Congress with 12 seats and Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) with nine seats.

On October 11, News Nation, in its opinion poll, had projected that the Congress may upset the Raje's government in Rajasthan, while BJP’s Raman Singh may retain power in Chhattisgarh, whereas Madhya Pradesh could witness a neck-and-neck fight between the two parties.

This was the first opinion poll conducted by any national news channel after the Election Commissioner announced the assembly election dates for five states, including Mizoram and Telangana, on October 6.

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The News Nation opinion poll predicted that the Congress could win between 113 and 117 seats in Rajasthan, while the BJP may bag seats between 71 and 75. The others would win between 10 and 14 seats. The chief minister seems to be struggling against a strong anti-incumbency factor.

In Chhattisgarh, Raman Singh, who has been in power since 2003, could become the chief minister for the fourth time. Out of 90 total seats, the BJP will win between 43 and 47 seats, the Congress between 36 and 40, while Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Ajit Jogi’s Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) alliance may manage only between three and seven seats. 

However, the toughest fight will be seen in Madhya Pradesh where incumbent Chouhan’s BJP may win anything between 109 and 113 seats, while the Congress, which has been trying hard to come back to power, is likely to bag between 107 and 111 seats. Others may win as many as 12 seats and could play an important role in forming the government. 

Congress chief spokesperson Randeep Surjewala said while the C-Voter polls is heartening and interesting, the situation on the ground is that the party is winning in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and also in Telangana in a resounding manner.

BJP spokesperson Bizay Sonkar Shastri rejected all the recent opinion polls, which gave Congress an edge in some poll-bound states. He said the BJP is heading for a "big victory" in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.

(With PTI inputs)