COVID-19: One Positive Patient Not Following Coronavirus Lockdown Can Infect 406 People

One coronavirus positive, not following preventive measures like social distancing or lockdown guidelines, can infect 406 persons in 30 days, according to an Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) study. However, with up to 70% measures in place, the number of infections per positive person comes down to a maximum of 2.5 people.

"If we consider R-Naught to be 2.5 then one positive person can infect 406 people in 30 days- if the lockdown and social distancing measures are not followed, but if the social distancing and lockdown measures are reduced by 75% then that one infected person will only be able to infect 2.5 persons," said Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secretary in the Union, Health Ministry citing the ICMR report.

Aggarwal said R-Naught for coronavirus is between 1.4 and 1.5 as per one study by the scientific body, ICMR.

According to PTI, R-Naught or R0 is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It tells the average number of people who will catch a disease from one infected person.

Aggarwal also said that the government has been adopting a strategy for cluster containment & for outbreaks that are amenable to management. This strategy is producing positive results, especially in Agra, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Pathanamthitta, Bhilwara and East Delhi.

The death toll due to novel coronavirus rose to 114 and the number of cases in the country climbed to 4,421 on Tuesday, according to the Union Health Ministry. A total of 326 infected people have recovered so far. (With Agency Inputs)