The hoopla of electoral predictions has started gaining momentum with the end of the restrictions set by the Election Commission on exit polls today.
The results of high-octane assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur will be declared on March 11 and two days before that, political research organisations have started churning out their predictions based on assessment of public opinion.
Research organisations often team up with leading media brands to gauge the public mood right after the polling. Based on these collective public opinions, they release the projected tally before the results are announced.
However, there are many instances when over-reliance on such predictions has given these teams a horrid time. In India, the guess work often turns out to be tricky and in many cases, wrong.
With this, a question always arises that how accurate are the exit polls in country’s increasingly unpredictable atmosphere?
|UP (403)||ABP-CSDS||News 24-Chanakya||Times Now-VMR||India News-MRC||India TV-C Voters||India Today-Axis|
|Punjab (117)||ABP-CSDS||News 24-Chanakya||Times Now-VMR||India TV-C Voter||India News-MRC||India Today- Axis|
|Uttarakhand (70)||ABP-CSDS||News 24-Chanakya||India TV-C Voter||India News-MRC||India Today- Axis|
|Goa (40)||ABP-CSDS||News 24-Chanakya||India TV-C Voter||India News-MRC||India Today- Axis|
|Manipur (60)||ABP-CSDS||News 24-Chanakya||India TV-C Voter||India News-MRC||India Today- Axis|
West Bengal assembly elections
Predicting the poll outcome of West Bengal in 2016 assembly elections proved out to be anybody’s game.
News channels were successful in predicting a landslide victory for the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC). Chanakya too had predicted 210 seats for TMC while C-Voter gave the party 167 seats. In the end, TMC won by 211 seats, which gave it the predicted landslide victory.
The exit polls had also given a correct overall picture of Assam as most polls predicted a BJP victory in Assam. After counting, BJP won in Assam with 86 seats, comfortably crossing the 64-seat number needed for majority.
Tamil Nadu elections
Most exit polls had predicted a defeat for the ruling AIADMK under the leadership of Jayalalithaa in the state. But AIADMK retained power as it won 136 seats in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Assembly.
Bihar assembly election
AXIS MY INDIA’s exit poll report on Bihar assembly elections in 2015 showed a remarkable 100% accuracy rate.
While other agencies were sure of a lead by NDA over others, AXIS MY INDIA poll was the only one to predict JD(U)+ victory with a significant number of seats.
Lok Sabha polls 2014
During the bitterly-fought Lok Sabha elections, political research organization Today’s Chanakya came closest to correctly predicting the final tally in the 16th Lok Sabha elections.
The group had projected 340 seats for the NDA and 291 for the BJP and it turned out that the saffron alliance won 326 seats in the 543-member Lower House.
Apart from it, most exit and opinion polls got their results horribly wrong.