Why can't even SP-BSP Mahagathbandhan stop BJP's juggernaut in 11 Uttar Pradesh bypoll seats? Read here

After the Lok Sabha Elections drubbing, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has decided to go solo in the upcoming Assembly bypolls to 11 seats in Uttar Pradesh. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has also said that his party would fight bypolls alone on all seats if its alliance with the BSP ends. The BJP-Apna Dal alliance had won 9 seats out of these 11 seats. The SP and the BSP won 1 seat each in the 2017 Assembly polls, while the Congress couldn't win any of these seats. The eleven seats where bypolls are scheduled are - Gangoh (Pradeep Kumar-BJP), Rampur (Azam Khan-SP), Lucknow Cantt (Rita Bahuguna Joshi-BJP), Govindnagar (Satyadev Pachauri-BJP), Tundla (Satya Pal Singh Baghel-BJP), Pratapgarh (Sangam Lal Gupta-Apna Dal), Manikpur (RK Singh Patel-BJP), Balha (Akshayvaralal-BJP), Iglas (Rajveer Diler-BJP), Jalalpur (Ritesh Pandey-BSP) and Zaidpur (Upendra Singh-BJP). 

By analysing the votes of each political party in 2017 Assembly polls, one can easily see that the SP-BSP alliance would be leading in just 4 seats. The BJP-Apna Dal alliance would lose only 2 seats namely Pratapgarh and Tundla in case the Mahagathbandhan replicates its 2017 performance in the upcoming bypolls. The final score could be 7-4 in favour of the BJP-led NDA. So the BSP walking out of the 'Grand Alliance' - which managed to won just 15 seats in recently concluded Lok Sabha Elections - is hardly going to make any difference for both the parties and the Bharatiya Janata Party would definitely have an upper hand. 

Let's have a look at the seat-wise analysis of all the 11 seats:

1. Gangoh

BJP's Pradeep Kumar received 99,446 votes in the 2017 Assembly Elections. The SP received 47,219 votes and the BSP got 44,717 votes. So, the total votes of both the parties were 91,936 votes, which were 7,510 votes less than the BJP candidate.

2. Rampur

SP's Azam Khan received 1,02,100 votes in the 2017 Assembly Elections. The BSP candidate received 54,248 votes whereas the BJP got just 55,258 votes. So, the total votes of both the parties (SP plus BSP) were 1,56,348 votes, which were 1,01,090 votes more than the BJP candidate.

3. Lucknow Cantt

BJP's Rita Bahuguna Joshi received 95,402 votes in the 2017 Assembly Elections. SP candidate Aparna Yadav received 61,606 votes whereas the BSP got just 26,036 votes. So, the total votes of both the parties were 87,642 votes, which were 7,760 votes less than Joshi.

4. Govindnagar

BJP's Satya Dev Pachauri received 1,12,029 votes in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. The SP left the seat for the Congress candidate which received 40,520 votes whereas the BSP got just 28,795 votes. So, if we assume that the Congress candidate received the SP vote then the combined votes of both the parties were 69,315 votes, which were 42,714 votes less than the BJP.

5. Tundla

BJP's Satya Pal Singh Baghel received 1,18,584 votes in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. The BSP candidate received 62,514 votes whereas the SP got 54,888 votes. So, the total votes of both the parties were 1,17,402 votes, which were 1,182 votes less than the BJP. However, if we add the total votes received by the RLD candidate (2,576 votes), the Mahagathbandhan was ahead of the BJP by 1,394 votes.

6. Pratapgarh

Apna Dal's Sangam Lal Gupta received 80,828 votes in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. The SP candidate received 46,274 votes whereas the BSP got 41,750 votes. So, the total votes of both the parties were 88,024 votes, which were 7,196 votes more than the Apna Dal-BJP candidate.

7. Manikpur

BJP's RK Singh Patel received 84,988 votes in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. The SP left the seat for the Congress candidate which received 40,524 votes whereas the BSP got just 32,498 votes. So, if we assume that the Congress candidate received the SP vote then the combined votes of both the parties were 73,022 votes, which were 11,966 votes less than the BJP.

8. Balha

BJP's Akshayvaralal received 1,04,135 votes in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. The BSP candidate received 57,519 votes whereas the SP got 29,349 votes. So, the total votes of both the parties were 86,868 votes, which were 17,267 votes less than the BJP. 

9. Iglas

BJP's Rajveer Diler received 1,28,000 votes in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. The SP left this seat for the Congress to contest which received 20,934 votes whereas the BSP got 53,200 votes. The RLD candidate also received 28,141 votes in these elections. So, the total votes of these three parties were 1,02,275 votes, which were 25,725 votes less than the BJP candidate. 

10. Jalalpur

BSP's Ritesh Pandey received 90,309 votes in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. The BJP candidate received 77,279 votes whereas the SP candidate got 58,773 votes. So, the combined votes of the BSP and the SP were 1,49,082, which were 71,803 votes more than the BJP.

11. Zaidpur

BJP's Upendra Singh received 1,11,064 votes in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. The SP candidate received just 4,383 votes in the elections whereas the BSP candidate got 48,095 votes. So, the total votes of these two parties were 52,478 votes, which were 58,586 votes less than the BJP candidate.