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Coronavirus: Report Says India May Get Over 20 Crore Cases, Predicts When COVID-19 Will End

CDDEP’s IndiaSIM Model Has Predicted That If Coronavirus Is Allowed To Spread Without Interventions Then Between 30 And 40 Crore Indians Are Likely To Be Infected By July.

News Nation Bureau | Edited By : Pawas Kumar | Updated on: 27 Mar 2020, 01:39:39 PM

The report also predicted that generalised social distancing can reduce this peak load by as much as 75 per cent. (Photo Credit: Image for representation/IANS)

New Delhi:

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the whole world with deaths, quarantines, and lockdowns becoming the new norms. Countries all over the world are scrambling to curb the spread the novel coronavirus outbreak. India is under lockdown till April 14 as part of its effort to contain the virus. However, there are many who have been flaunting the lockdown and putting themselves in danger. For those who are yet to get the gravity of the situation, a report by John Hopkins University may ring some alarm bells. (Coronavirus Outbreak: All Updates)

According to a report by the Johns Hopkins University quoting the Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy (CDDEP), the number of coronavirus infections in India may cross 20 crore in next two months if preventive measures, including isolation and social distancing, are not followed.

According to the report, if Indians do not follow distancing and isolation, despite being under lockdown, the trajectory of cases would be high and the numbers are expected to hover over 20 crores. The model also projects that COVID-19 cases may finally start to slow done or end by July or August.

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CDDEP’s IndiaSIM model has predicted that if coronavirus is allowed to spread without interventions then between 30 and 40 crore Indians are likely to be infected by July. However, most of these cases are expected to be mild. According to the report, at the peak (somewhere between April and May 2020), 10 crore Indians could be infected at one time.

Here's what the three scenarios mean:

High: Trajectory with current lockdowns but insufficient physical distancing or compliance.

Medium: Most likely scenario with moderate to full compliance but no change in virulence or temperature/humidity sensitivity.

Low: Optimistic scenario with decreased virulence and temperature/humidity sensitivity. (Source:

However, in some good news, the report also predicted that generalised social distancing can reduce this peak load by as much as 75 per cent. Which means number of cases could be limited to 2.5 crore at the peak.

It also said that national containment is not a viable option in India. However, state or local (temporary) containment and mitigation is the best option.

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First Published : 27 Mar 2020, 01:36:35 PM

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