As Qatar marks the second anniversary of being blockaded by four of its regional neighbours, an analyst said that there is no reason to expect the Gulf crisis to end in the foreseeable future.
In an interview with Al Jazeera, Giorgio Cafiero, founder of Gulf State Analytics, said that there seems to be little interest in reconciliation from the parties involved. "This is mainly due to the fact that from the perspective of all parties involved in the crisis the costs of reconciliation appear higher than those of continuing to live with the GCC's Qatar rift," he said.
If Qatar acquiesces to the demands made of it by the quartet, Cafiero further explained, then it would agree to relinquish its sovereignty ‘which no state could do in a dignified manner’.
"By the same token, for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain to ease the blockade without Qatar changing along the lines desired by Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Cairo, [this] would humiliate these capitals at a time when they seek to appear tough on 'terrorism,'" he added.
The impasse is due to the way the crisis has been drawn in the lines by the parties, which Cafiero said would make any capitulation by either side all the more humiliating. "Moreover, Doha has proven capable of not only surviving but also thriving amid this blockade," he added.
"Thus it is realistic to imagine this row within the GCC lasting for a significantly longer period of time," Cafiero concluded.
It is to be noted that Arab quartet including Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates cut off ties with Qatar and blockaded the state in June 2017, accusing it of supporting terrorism and sowing discord in the region.
Later, Saudi and its allies issued a 13-point list of demands to end the rift on June 22 and gave Qatar 10 days to comply. However, Qatar denied all their allegations saying that they never supported Islamist militants and Shi'ite Iran.